The big day is nearly here – the festival debuts, clever (or not so clever) campaigning, (leaked) screeners, rants over total wild cards somehow making it (oh hi, Deadpool), the hot takes, the think pieces, the frontrunner backlash and ‘frontlash’, the guild awards, the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs: they have all led to this moment. Or rather, will lead to Sunday night/early Monday morning, which is when the 89th Academy Awards will be handed out at Hollywood’s Dolby Theatre.
Before flicking on that Sky box (with a bit of Twitter on the side) for what is sure to be an eventful late night, we’ve gathered the team here at the FilmSoc blog to deliver our predictions. Given there’s more than a few of us on the team, we have decided to do this by a vote; and given all the factors outside of a film’s actual merit, each of the 24 categories will have both a Will Win and a Should Win choice. So without further ado, read on after Screen Junkies’ brilliant Honest Trailer for our picks:
Best Picture
Arrival (SHOULD WIN) – our Best Picture Spotlight
Fences – our review
Hacksaw Ridge – our review
Hell or High Water – our Best Picture Spotlight
Hidden Figures – our review
La La Land (WILL WIN) – our review
Lion – our review
Manchester by the Sea – our review
Moonlight – our review
Best Actor In A Leading Role
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (WILL and SHOULD WIN)
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Best Actress In A Leading Role
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving – our review
Natalie Portman, Jackie (tied SHOULD WIN) – our review
Emma Stone, La La Land (WILL WIN/tied SHOULD WIN)
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Actor In A Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (WILL and SHOULD WIN)
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Best Actress In A Supporting Role
Viola Davis, Fences (WILL and SHOULD WIN)
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Best Animated Feature Film
Kubo and the Two Strings (SHOULD WIN)
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia [aka Zootropolis] (WILL WIN)
Best Cinematography
Bradford Young, Arrival
Linus Sandgren, La La Land (WILL and SHOULD WIN)
Greig Fraser, Lion
James Laxton, Moonlight
Rodrigo Prieto, Silence
Best Costume Design
Joanna Johnston, Allied
Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins
Madeline Fontaine, Jackie (tied SHOULD WIN)
Mary Zophres, La La Land (WILL WIN/tied SHOULD WIN)
Best Director
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land (WILL and SHOULD WIN)
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Best Documentary Feature
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America (SHOULD WIN)
13th (WILL WIN)
Best Documentary (Short Subject)
Extremis (tied WILL WIN)
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin (tied SHOULD WIN)
Watani: My Homeland (tied WILL and SHOULD win)
The White Helmets
Best Film Editing
Joe Walker, Arrival (SHOULD WIN)
John Gilbert, Hacksaw Ridge
Jake Roberts, Hell or High Water
Tom Cross, La La Land (WILL WIN)
Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon, Moonlight
Best Foreign Language Film
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann (WILL and SHOULD WIN) – our review
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Eva von Bahr and Love Larson, A Man Called Ove
Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo, Star Trek Beyond (WILL and SHOULD WIN)
Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, and Christopher Nelson; Suicide Squad
Best Original Score
Mica Levi, Jackie
Justin Hurwitz, La La Land (WILL and SHOULD WIN)
Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka, Lion
Nicholas Britell, Moonlight
Thomas Newman, Passengers
Best Original Song
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land – Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul (SHOULD WIN)
“Can’t Stop The Feeling” from Trolls – Music and Lyric by Justin Timberlake, Max Martin and Karl Johan Schuster
“City Of Stars” from La La Land – Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul (WILL WIN)
“The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story – Music and Lyric by J. Ralph and Sting
“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana – Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
Best Production Design
Patrice Vermette and Paul Hotte, Arrival
Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Jess Gonchor and Nancy Haigh, Hail, Caesar!
David Wasco and Sandy Reynolds-Wasco, La La Land (WILL and SHOULD WIN)
Guy Hendrix Dyas and Gene Serdena, Passengers
Best Animated Short Film
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper (WILL and SHOULD WIN)
Best Live Action Short Film
Ennemis Intérieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights (tied WILL and SHOULD WIN)
Sing (tied WILL and SHOULD WIN)
Timecode (tied SHOULD WIN)
Best Sound Editing
Sylvain Bellemare, Arrival (SHOULD WIN)
Wylie Stateman and Renée Tondelli, Deepwater Horizon
Robert Mackenzie and Andy Wright, Hacksaw Ridge
Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan, La La Land (WILL WIN)
Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman, Sully
Best Sound Mixing
Bernard Gariépy Strobl and Claude La Haye, Arrival (SHOULD WIN)
Kevin O’Connell, Andy Wright, Robert Mackenzie, and Peter Grace, Hacksaw Ridge
Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee, and Steve A. Morrow, La La Land (WILL WIN)
David Parker, Christopher Scarabosio, and Stuart Wilson, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, and Mac Ruth, 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Best Visual Effects
Craig Hammeck, Jason Snell, Jason Billington, and Burt Dalton, Deepwater Horizon
Stephane Ceretti, Richard Bluff, Vincent Cirelli, and Paul Corbould, Doctor Strange (SHOULD WIN)
Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Dan Lemmon, The Jungle Book (WILL WIN)
Steve Emerson, Oliver Jones, Brian McLean, and Brad Schiff, Kubo and the Two Strings
John Knoll, Mohen Leo, Hal Hickel, and Neil Corbould, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival – Eric Heisserer, based on the short story “Story of Your Life” by Ted Chiang (SHOULD WIN)
Fences – August Wilson, based on the play by August Wilson
Hidden Figures – Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi, based on the book “Hidden Figures” by Margot Shetterly
Lion – Luke Davies, based on the book” A Long Way Home” by Saroo Brierley
Moonlight – Barry Jenkins, story by Tarell Alvin McCraney, based on the play “In Moonlight Black Boys Look Blue” by Tarell Alvin McCraney (WILL WIN)
Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water – Taylor Sheridan
La La Land – Damien Chazelle
The Lobster – Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou
Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan (WILL and SHOULD WIN)
20th Century Women – Mike Mills – our review
Agree? Disagree? Who do you think will win? Let us know in the comments…and stay tuned for the Oscars themselves, airing on Sky Movies Oscars at 1:30am GMT, Monday February 27.